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时间:2018/7/17 12:00:18  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要:Henry Lu, Chinese with 40% off.TL;DR:Big bucks, hostility to Japan and a well adapted Game Theory strategy.First, a little bit of background...
Henry Lu, Chinese with 40% off.
Big bucks, hostility to Japan and a well adapted Game Theory strategy.
First, a little bit of background:
China has long wanted to upgrade its massive rail network to the standards of Japan and France. From day one, the leadership knew this was going to be a big cake for whoever wins the bid, as the scale of the potential High Speed Railway (HSR) coverage is unheard of in this industry.
The rule of engagement is set out very clearly from the beginning: any firm wished to bid in this mammoth project must transfer their technology to Chinese domestic partners.
Although it may sound like shooting oneself in foot by transferring cutting edge technology to a developing country with huge industrial capacity, the accountants soon worked out that even if a firm transfer all of its technology, the profit from the project will still more than offset the cost of R&D for the next generation of HSRs (this idea was heralded by Bombardier who started transferring technologies since as early as 1998).
The Big Bucks:
In 2010 alone, the Ministry of Railway (MOR) invested over US$100 billion in new construction. The next year, in 2011, another US$100 billion is invested. If compared with military expenditure, this places MOR as No.3 in the world, behind USA and China and ahead of Russia (US$87 billion in 2013).
With this much cash on the table, the project has become a modern day gold rush for the likes of Siemens, Alstom, Bombardier and Kawasaki.
Hatred of Japan:
Initially, Shinkansen train sets (Kawasaki) was going to be awarded to supply the entire project. Once made public, the decision was overturned by angry nationalists who gathered over a million signatories against the deal based on Japan's unresolved WWII atrocities.
As a result, the bidding process re-opened to start favoring European and North American companies. The structure of bidding also changed - it has decided that instead of a winner-takes-all scenario, all participants are going to have a slice of the cake which lowered the risk as well as maximized technology transfer benefit to domestic train makers.
To the Chinese train makers, instead of obtaining one type of technology from Japanese train maker, they now have access to all types of HSR technologies thanks to the re-structure.
Game Theory:
The foreign bidders were played off against one another in a text book Prisoner's Dilemma: holding out on technology transfer or refusing to lower prices will yield maximum profit but risks missing out entirely on the bidding. If all Chinese requirements are met, however, the profit margin will hurt greatly as well as facing risk of losing one's market leader position by nurturing Chinese competitors from end to end.
The high octane game ended surprisingly well to the Chinese - the final contracts are not only similar in structure with the aim to offer maximum assistance to domestic partners in digesting and maturing foreign technologies (e.g. from the 60 train set orders Kawasai won, three would be built in Japan, six kit sets would be assembled in China and the remaining 51 would be made and assembled in China), but also set a new low cost benchmark for the HSR industry.
Siemens was the only one who decided to stood its ground - but not for long. Due to its high asking price, it was the only train maker not awarded any contract in 2004. The following year, Siemens reshuffled the bidding team and lowered its price to win a 60 train set order in the 350km/h category.
As a group, the major train companies 'lost out' on maintaining their competitive advantage by failing to squeeze out maximum profits to maintain their lead for the next-gen HSR to fend off the inevitable assault from the very competitors they helped raised.
China has significantly reduced its partnership with western train makers in the on-going HSR expansions. The reliability and speed of domestic trains have steadily improved to a satisfactory level, often exceeding the specs of the original train sets designed by western train makers. Although China's overseas HSR bids have yielded mixed results so far, it has leaped over hurdles that would otherwise take decades to overcome.
One can say that China bought its way to become a serious contender in the HSR industry. Even with a deep pocket, this is still easily said than done without an uncompromising goal and a highly efficient governing structure.






















Vivek Kumar, Transportation Enthusiast
Let me tell you an observation deep-rooted in Chinese history which spans quite a few century. Buddhism was founded in India around sixth century BC and it made its way to many countries in Asia and Eastern Europe. It is believed that, Buddhism was introduced in China through the silk route in around 1st century CE. The form of Chinese  Buddhism what we know of today is called ‘Mahayana sect’ is most well-known, highly practiced and most literature/scripture enriched Buddhism we have. While this may not be a direct analogy, but it gives us the sense of the capability of ‘reverse engineering’ in the DNA of Chinese population.  
Come 2015, today China is the High-speed railway (HSR) leader around the globe, both in technology and operation. China has the world's longest HSR network with over 19,369.8 km (12,035.8 mi) of track in service as of December 2014, which is more than the rest of the world's HSR tracks combined. This is not due to an overnight planning but a result of meticulous and shrewd planning over the years. Meteoritic rise of Chinese HSR industry was due to the culmination of many social, demographic, economic, industrial and technical reasons. I will try to list out some of them which majorly influenced HSR industry in China. Also, the reasons are ordered in such a way that it will help in understanding China’s journey from HSR development to a dominant player.
1.      Geographical Need: China with vast land area, mid-level GDP ($4500 per capita in 2010), substantial population density in central and eastern provinces, and large number of well-spaced cities with more than 0.5 million population is an optimum candidate for high speed rail.
2.      Rebalancing growth: Much of celebrated Chinese development was limited to its eastern and southern coast provinces which produced a skewed growth geographically. So, Chinese policy makers are focusing on balancing the growth and HSR is one way to bring the mobility to undeveloped part of the nation. High-speed rail link to connect China's provincial capitals|Markets|Business|
3.      Market dynamics: China’s integration in global market by its accession to WTO in 2001 after its own two century long self-imposed closed door development required rapid development of its rail transportation system. To maintain the competitiveness in trade, it required faster transportation of raw material as well as human resource throughout the country
4.      Social and cultural events: Two major international events, Olympics in 2008 and World Expo in 2010 sped up the HSR construction needs in China. Historically, HSRs of Japan, France, Germany and Spain were all developed under similar opportunities.
5.      Decisive leadership: China was once the hub of innovation marked with inventions such compass, printing, gunpowder etc. However, bureaucratic feudalism robbed the innovative capability of China until Deng Xiaoping took charge. With a re-focus on science and technology coupled with batteries of universities and labs, China was ready to understand, digest and produce new technologies in-house. Under MOR’s policy of promoting privatization and competition, rolling stock factories and research centres were given independent status and split into two large corporations, CNR and CSR. These two later became the forefront of Chinese HSR technology.
6.      Availability of public fund: In the period when HSR network was starting to take shape in China, there was no shortage of money for such large scale infrastructure project. While, other countries shied away from investment in HSR, China pumped billions of dollar every year in HSR construction. In 2008, china had around $2000 billion of foreign reserve.
7.      Technology transfer:  Chinese government had clarified three principles of transferring technology from foreign ventures investing in Chinese HSR construction. A. Import state-of-the-art technology; 2. Joint design and production; 3. Establish local brands. As, Henry Lu pointed out, foreign companies agreed to such demands in the promise of huge untapped market. However, little to their knowledge, they were digging their own grave. China Merging Trainmakers Adds to Pressure on Siemens
'Made in China' high-speed trains going global | Asia | DW.DE | 03.07.2014
8.      Technology ‘acquisition’- In 2005, the German conglomerate Siemens formed JV with China National Railway Corporation (CNR) on a contract to supply 60 passenger trains for the Beijing-Tianjin high-speed railway. The first three trains were built in Siemens’ German plant. The remaining 57 trains were made in China at CNR’s plant in Tangshan. Siemens also brought 1,000 CNR technicians to Germany for training. However, in March 2009, Siemens announced a follow-on project to provide 100 trains for the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway. The Ministry of Railways denied the deal’s existence, saying that the project would use Chinese technology. In the end, CNR was awarded a US $5.7 billion contract and Siemens was contracted to supply US $1 billion in components. Here, we see the shrewd acquisition of technology. Also, it was reported that with reverse engineering, Chinese companies were able to increase the running speed of trains, thus adding another attribute to Chinese HSR industry.
9.      Technology Diversification: Unlike South Korea and Spain that have imported technology from a single foreign country, China has imported equipment from many countries and companies, and thus have multiple technology providers. It gave Chinese HSR industry a breath of knowledge of technicalities and selected the best from multiple sources. Additionally, having a state-owned company with all possible know-how helps in new international bids for HSR construction.
10.    Low cost, high tech: China's centralised technology ownership, cheap labour and abundant raw material has allowed it to become the cheapest HSR provider. The construction cost of Chinese HSR is roughly $17m to $21m per kilometre, compared to $25m to $39m of Europe companies. The Chinese state negotiates attractive export terms for its fully-owned HSR tech unlike their rival where different technologies are owned by different companies.
11.   Customer Acquisition: China’s deep financial pocket ensures that it is able to provide financial help for construction to prospective customer of HSR. This is a brilliant strategy to knock out competitors. China part financed Ankara-Istanbul HSR by $750m in loans from China, including $500m in loans with favourable terms. Also, China is offering free HSR study to India, its arch-nemesis. China to offer aid for India high-speed rail study









7、技术转让:中国政府明确了外国企业投资中国高铁建设的技术转让三原则。A、进口最先进的技术;B、联合设计和生产;C、建立本土品牌。正如Henry Lu所指出的,外国公司面对巨大的有待开发的市场前景,同意了这种要求。然而,他们没有想到的是,这只是在自掘坟墓。






Xun Wang, Chinese national living in the US (9 years & counting)
Because the leaders decided that this is a good field for China to go into strategically. China's internal transportation system relies heavily on railway systems due to the massive number of passengers it needs to carry. Moreover,  the Euro-Asia continent has the majority of the world's most important countries (except for the US of course). Having a comprehensive high-speed railway network on the continent would allow China to project its economical and military power far more easily and cheaply than the US, while bypassing most of US's global naval presence.
Then, one of the best things for having an authoritarian government is that once the it decides to do something, it never receives resistance in execution. High speed rails, nuclear bombs and human space flights are all good examples that China developed using a fraction of the time and cost compared with western countries. Of course, silly projects like the Three Gorges Dam also got the green light far too easily.




Jian Zhou, Director at Asia Pacific (2010-present)
Some of the countries might have technic of HSR but that’s it. (Germany, France, etc.)
Some of the countries might have vast land for HSR but that’s it. (Russia etc.)
While China has everything that needed for the development of HSR, you name it:
HSR technic learned from other countries or developed by itself. (not everyone does)
Unrivalled capabilities of infrastructure, such as tunnels, bridges, railways stations, etc.
Industrial size to support supply chain of HSR. (unique in China)
Capital support to build HSR (comparable only in US or Japan)
High efficient and decisional system for programme. (communist system)
Vast land for construction. (comparable only in US or Russia)
Huge amounts of, hardworking, well-trained and cheap labors (unique in China)
Strong demand and sizable market. (comparable only in large population countries)
Strategy need of the Belt and Road (Eurasia)















Paco Canker, Europhile, multilingual, controversial. Nature, marketing, photogapher
China is still quite far away from becoming a HS rail player worldwide. Indeed, they have only secured low traffic, non High Speed lines in Africa and Asia only to this date. Nothing fancy or state of the art yet.
Now, we should differentiate what we mean by “High Speed Trains”. For the sake of a clear understanding, there are two main constituent parts to it: Rolling Stock (the physical train) and the signaling system (the brains of the train that allow high speeds and no accidents by providing real time safety between one train and the other every 2.5 minutes or so).
If we talk about rolling stock, it is kind of true what I have read in this thread: the transfer of technology by blind European supplier (Siemens, Alstom, Bombardier) has allowed Chinese companies to build their own trains almost without help now. They still must/should pay royalties to the EU suppliers if they are to sell these trains outside Chinese territory.
If we talk about signaling technologies, then the Chinese are a bit lagging behind, mainly because the world standard (ERTMS) is a European standard (though widely accepted globally with thousands of km of lines in service in all 5 continents) and the Chinese railway system is a national system that is not interoperable and deemed less advanced than the European standard. ERTMS, or European Rail Traffic Management Systems has been developed by the EU industry (Siemens, Alstom, Bombardier, Ansaldo STS, Thales) to accommodate the highest safety standards and the biggest capacity limits possible at the highest operational speeds. The world “interoperable” should be understood in 2 different manners here: interoperable country-wise (ie, a train from country A can travel freely in country B and C from the signaling point of view - this is the case TODAY between France and Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands, Austria and Hungary *Eurostar between Paris, London and Brussels is still based on TVM technology) and interoperable industry-wise (ie, an ERTMS on-board-equipped train by supplier A can run on an ERTMS-equipped trackside by supplier B, or even further, a piece of equipment from supplier A can be replaced by supplier B, ending with decades of supplier-locked customers paying high fees just to keep an obsolete technology alive. Both these reasons are driving customers worldwide to opt in for ERTMS as their signaling system of choice, something that the Chinese industry cannot do today. The Chinese systems is based on a local CTCS signaling system solution, based partially upon ERTMS equipment but certainly not interoperable in both senses of the meaning. No other country has yet opted for CTCS anywhere.
Therefore, I believe we are still quite far away until we see a railway project fully run with Chinese technology in a developed country. Certainly, we may Chinese-built see rolling stock first. But not a complete system. And not in an advanced country. But this will hit European suppliers nonetheless.







Jack Lee, works at China
The techinques of high-speed railway in China has been developped for a long time, but the exporting is "suddenly".
Chinese have considered serveral alternatives to ease the problems of domestic transportation-- as you may know, the largest annual human immigration in the world troubled Chinese government for a long long time. Experts have tried magnetic suspension railway, which is too expensive (there is still a running business line from Shanghai to Pudong airport, at a speed from 300-500 km per hour); and high-way, which is still fast developping; and the high-speed railway.
China's high-speed railway is not a simple copy of similar techiniques from other countries. The main attributes of China's high-speed railway  include cheap and robust. It relies on less regulations and standards, therefore, it is possible for the same tech to be applied from north to south, from east to west of China. This is the guarantee to export the tech to other part of the world.
And then, things suddenly happened.






To develop 2010s technology from 2000s technology, it requires hard working and intelligence in which Chinese are as good as anyone else. To develop 2010s technology from 1970s technology, it requires technical transfer or miracle. China imported 250 kph technology from Japan and 350 kph technology from Germany, then developed its own 350 kph system which is no surprising. The Japanese and German technology are 20 years old. They are patenting 380 kph system as well.



Richard Gadsden, I've been described as an "omnigeek".
When China was first establishing their high-speed railway industry, they contracted with the major players that were building high-speed rail: Alstom (France), Siemens (Germany) and several Japanese manufacturers including Hitachi.  Rather than simply paying these firms to build rail, the Chinese required them to partner with a Chinese manufacturer and turn over all the intellectual property and knowledge necessary for the Chinese manufacturer to be able to build high-speed trains independently of the overseas supplier by the end of the contract.  These contracts were typically ten years.  These contracts were very lucrative, and the international firms were happy to sign on.
The result is that there are now several Chinese manufacturers now that have been completely brought up to speed with the latest technologies and are now building their own trains to the same standards as the Europeans and Japanese.




Vanitha Muthukumar
They have achieved that and now it gives them the confidence. Moreover, their highway projects in other countries has been well received. During my international consultations I do see countries on a global platform. And china has the infrastructure ideas, know how , man power who work at a fast paced rate, and work to precision. I have seen construction by Chinese workers and even their tiling work is excellent.
They achieved the railway across Tibet and that in dangerous terrain. Nothing is impossible for china.




Kevin Fitzpatrick, Historian of Religion in training.
Aside from the answers provided already, China is losing money for it.
I paid for a ticket in the US which took me about 150 miles, it was about 80 USD, In China, i went about 50 miles, it cost me about 10 RMB.
China is willing to subsidize their passengers, in order to bring China modern transportation, and a better infrastructure, like how the US does with airliners, except this last longer, since the tracks are built on the ground.




Lynn Chen
I am not sure if China is losing money on the new trains, as I don't have their financial statements. But if you drew your conclusion from the comparison of ticket prices between China and US., then I can tell you your conclusion might be off. It's not about the cost per mile per rider but the cost per mile of total riders. I think I am fairly certain Chinese trains in general have higher occupancy than the US ones. Again, I have no data, just based on personal experiences and pure observations.
On the other hand, I won't be surprised if Chinese government does subsides the train department just like the U.S. subsides theirs. After all, trains are considered part of PUBLIC transportations. Government needs to step in to maintain its coverage to more isolated areas in addition to the more profitable metropolitan areas, and it has nothing to do with the train being the newest technology or just old piece of metal, thus irrelevant to the original question asked by the author.



Kevin Fitzpatrick
I actually do know they subsidize their trains. The inclusion of the monetary numbers is just to show how much they are.
The US does not see trains as important, since the 1950s they have given in total less then 1 years subsidies given to air tavel. China is being smart and building infrastructure, rather then wasting their tax money on airlines.




Mang Sitlhou
I don't see losing high speed rail to China by foreign companies.China high speed is the kind of advertising to the world by advanced high speed rail companies.Now that the world knows high speed rail is a reliable transportation,high chances of demand by countries with large landmass.



Frank Zhang
i wonder do you know the meaning of spring transportation (春运).we have soooo many peoples to be translated During that short period of time .



Chris Chen
much government support and innovation.



John Daniels, former Street Railway Motorman
By copying the technology of the French, German, and Japanese designs.



Ercole Distefano
Aren't Japan and china the only countries that take high speed rail seriously? Japan doesn't have the land to build as many as china, seems kinda one sided.



Claudia Song
government's back



Lin Wei, a man in China
During the spring festival,there are over one billion people coming home by train.Even we got the high-speed rail,  last time i still failed geting home in time.






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